Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Win Predictions 2012-13 Preview

Without further ado, using my simple model here are my results for the projected win totals for the season with a few surprising results:



Western conference projected standings:
Team
2012 Wins/games
2013 Wins/games
2013 Wins
Offensive efficiency
Defensive efficiency
LAL
0.621
0.720
59
4.69
2.87
SAS
0.758
0.683
56
5.36
0.77
MEM
0.621
0.646
53
1.27
3.71
LAC
0.606
0.646
53
4.89
0.32
OKC
0.712
0.634
52
2.96
1.43
DEN
0.576
0.561
46
1.49
0.46
DAL
0.545
0.537
44
-1.53
2.67
NOH
0.318
0.476
39
-0.01
-0.29
MIN
0.394
0.463
38
0.13
-1.06
UTA
0.545
0.463
38
0.26
-1.12
PHO
0.500
0.451
37
-1.23
-0.22
HOU
0.515
0.439
36
-1.43
-0.17
POR
0.424
0.366
30
-1.79
-2.03
GSW
0.348
0.354
29
-1.85
-2.49
SAC
0.333
0.341
28
-0.31
-4.41



Eastern conference projected standings:
Team
2012 Wins/games
2013 Wins/games
2013 Wins
Offensive efficiency
Defensive efficiency
MIA
0.697
0.732
60
4.53
3.44
ATL
0.606
0.610
50
2.27
1.40
CHI
0.758
0.598
49
1.92
1.13
BOS
0.591
0.585
48
0.60
1.92
IND
0.636
0.585
48
1.31
1.28
NYK
0.545
0.573
47
0.98
1.44
NJN
0.333
0.512
42
2.13
-1.77
PHI
0.530
0.500
41
-0.77
0.87
MIL
0.470
0.500
41
-0.07
0.35
TOR
0.348
0.488
40
-0.33
0.37
WAS
0.303
0.402
33
-1.67
-1.17
ORL
0.561
0.402
33
-0.21
-2.35
CLE
0.318
0.280
23
-4.96
-2.01
DET
0.379
0.256
21
-2.64
-5.18
CHA
0.106
0.195
16
-5.58
-4.37


Notes:
-Utah is where I have the most disagreement. A large part of this is because of Mo Williams' defense, but it's also because of the logjam they have in the frontcourt.
-The west now has no truly terrible teams and lots of decent but middling ones from the Nash-less suns to the poor Blazers.
-Davis' Hornets are difficult to project. Ryan Anderson reaped the benefits of playing next to Howard; it shows in his numbers. The question is, how good is he?
-Miami is head and shoulders above anyone in the east, but who's surprised?
-The Bulls will do well without much of Rose this year because of all their defensive talent ... as long as Deng and Noah are intact.
-Atlanta sans Johnson is akin to Atlanta sans Horford. You lop off one body part, and they regrow a limb.
-I don't see how losing both Brand and Iguodala can be replaced by Bynum, who will probably get injured.
-Brooklyn, I'm sorry that your defensive lapses are so severe.
-Congratulations, Charlotte, you nearly doubled  your winning percentage. But you're still last.

Championship finals:
Miami Heat in seven games over the Los Angeles Lakers

Monday, October 29, 2012

Golden State Warriors 2012-13 Preview

This will be a short article; I mainly wanted to comment on the huge variability of the outcome of the team due to projected injuries to a couple of players. Obviously, Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry miss a metric tonne of games due to injuries where last season their combined minutes barely clears the 1000 minute mark. They have, however, collected a large number of 2000+ minute seasons, so it's unclear following this turmoil exactly which direction they'll go. Anyone who purports definitive knowledge while not possessing insider knowledge and a doctorate in medicine should not be trusted.

Well, they have other players on the team who, we're assuming professionals; so how much does this matter? I drafted three scenarios using super secret analytic model of ultimate power. One looked at Bogut and Curry playing the same amount as last season (adjusted from 66 games), and another at 2700 minutes each. Lastly, one with a modest amount of playing time hedging the bet between the two extremes. The results are amazing.

Scenarios
Stephen Curry (mins)
Andrew Bogut (mins)
Wins
Offensive efficiency
Defensive efficiency
1
909
452
23
-2.4
-4.2
2
1400
1600
29
-1.9
-2.5
3
2600
2600
39
-0.4
-0.3


The efficiency measures are compared to the league average. Both appear to have an amazing effect on one side of the court. They're, strangely enough, the NorCal, bizarro world, poor man's version of Nash and Howard, but as brittle as Mr. Glass. Bogut in a healthy year would single-handedly lift a terrible defense from the doldrums to the league average, which is an Atlas-worthy feat. Curry has a relatively smaller effect on offense, but oddly his defense is more valuable than Bogut's offense. I think that's a bit of a fluke in the numbers I have (is it because for an offensive spark teams play small and put a skilled offensive player at center, while Curry waffles between two positions with decent size?), but it's also because the Warriors' supporting cast is absolutely terrible.

David Lee used to be an exciting player on the Knicks, but now he's exposed as a scoring power forward who gives up his value on the defensive end. Jarrett Jack shouldn't be starting, but if Curry is injured that may happen many times. Richard Jefferson is their offensive spark on the wings, yet he couldn't be trusted with a fourth man role on the Spurs. Harrison Barnes is probably a couple years away from contributing positively. Klay Thompson is promising, but like like the Warriors before him his defense negates his outside shooting. Udoh, traded to the Bucks in a package for Bogut, was a secretly great defensive player. Andris Biedrin's professional game was last seen in 2009. The amnesty was used on Charlie Bell's four-million dollar expiring contract instead of Andris' because they were pursuing free agent center DeAndre Jordan. Wait, that doesn't make any sense....

Barring major developments from their young players, their season completely relies on Bogut and Curry to have any shot at contending for the playoffs in the crowded west. Unfortunately, bad news about Curry's ankles is becoming much too common, and Bogut's reaching an age where injuries will only accelerate in frequency. I have absolutely no way of predicting their season, and as such I'll take something in between the extremes to eliminate the possibility of being jaw-droppingly wrong. With the amazing value of these two when they can play and the depressing supporting cast, every minute helps. It's not quite a way for fans with high blood pressure to follow basketball.

Model (read: rolling some dice) win total prediction:
30-52
(rounded up simply because I like round numbers and this feels arbitrary either way)

Los Angeles Lakers 2012-13 Preview

I know this sounds crazy, but I feel the Lakers are underrated this year. They essentially traded Bynum for Nash and Dwight Howard. Dwight Howard, a two-time defensive player of the year and best center by a mile, carried weak supporting casts far into postseasons and past reasonable win totals. His best teammate previously was ... Jameer Nelson? Turkoglu? Ryan Anderson? Nash is a great-grandfather in NBA terms, but he had another impressive season and his shooting and passing skills won't erode with time. He's replacing Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake. They now have a core of Nash, Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard.

Some forecasts have the Lakers modestly accumulating win totals. Hollinger predicts only 53 wins, behind the Nuggets, Thunder and the Spurs, who he pegs to come out of the west. Basketball Prospectus estimated the Lakers with Howard and Nash would only win about 55 to 56 games next season; it's hardly a slight but it's a stratosphere from what experts were saying would happen when LeBron, Wade, and Bosh joined forces. Lakers fans, obviously, are confidently predicting 73-9 with not just one but two titles in a single year, but there are a few doubters out there.

Throwing together a cast of all-stars doesn't mean you can just add some static value of each player to predict the win total for the season. In other words, the team is not the sum of its parts. This is a case of diminishing returns. There is only one basketball on the court, and the Lakers gang can only shoot one at a time. If you add up the big four's shot attempts and compare it to what the Lakers averaged per game last year, those four players would comprise 72% of their shot attempts. Do the same with free throws and it's ... 104%. In fact, if you take a weighted average of the usage rates from last season and apply it to this season's Lakers, you get something around 21.8%. Note that because there are five players on the court at once the average should be 20 (100% divided by 5). For the math to make sense, you have to subtract shots from someone, and the question is will that be a center on track for the Hall of Frame in his prime or arguably the best shooter ever in Nash, or will that be Kobe Bryant, whose last season's shooting quantities were only rivaled by Jordan, Iverson, Wade, and himself?

The table below is showing every with a usage % (percentage of team plays used) of 35 and over with a minimum of 1500 minutes played in the season.

Player
Year
Age
Tm
MP
FGA
3PA
FTA
Ast
Tov
Pts
FG%
3P%
TS%
USG%
Kobe Bryant
2006
27
LAL
3277
27.2
6.5
10.2
4.5
3.1
35.4
45.0
34.7
55.9
38.7
Michael Jordan
1987
23
CHI
3281
27.8
0.8
11.9
4.6
3.3
37.1
48.2
18.2
56.2
38.3
Allen Iverson
2002
26
PHI
2622
27.8
4.5
9.8
5.5
4.0
31.4
39.8
29.1
48.9
37.8
Dwyane Wade
2009
27
MIA
3048
22.0
3.5
9.8
7.5
3.4
30.2
49.1
31.7
57.4
36.2
Jermaine O'Neal
2005
26
IND
1530
19.4
0.1
8.9
1.9
3.0
24.3
45.2
16.7
52.0
36.2
Michael Jordan
2002
38
WAS
2093
22.1
0.9
5.6
5.2
2.7
22.9
41.6
18.9
46.8
36.0
Allen Iverson
2001
25
PHI
2979
25.5
4.3
10.1
4.6
3.3
31.1
42.0
32.0
51.8
35.9
Allen Iverson
2006
30
PHI
3103
25.3
3.1
11.5
7.4
3.4
33.0
44.7
32.3
54.3
35.8
Kobe Bryant
2012
33
LAL
2232
23.0
4.9
7.8
4.6
3.5
27.9
43.0
30.3
52.7
35.7
Allen Iverson
2004
28
PHI
2040
23.4
4.1
9.5
6.8
4.4
26.4
38.7
28.6
47.8
35.3
Tracy McGrady
2003
23
ORL
2954
24.2
6.0
9.7
5.5
2.6
32.1
45.7
38.6
56.4
35.2
Dominique Wilkins
1988
28
ATL
2948
25.1
1.7
8.4
2.9
2.8
30.7
46.4
29.5
53.4
35.2
Jerry Stackhouse
2001
26
DET
3215
24.1
5.9
10.1
5.1
4.1
29.8
40.2
35.1
52.1
35.2
Kobe Bryant
2011
32
LAL
2779
20.0
4.3
7.1
4.7
3.0
25.3
45.1
32.3
54.8
35.1
Bernard King
1985
28
NYK
2063
23.7
0.2
10
3.7
3.7
32.9
53.0
10.0
58.5
35.1
George Gervin
1982
29
SAS
2817
25.2
0.5
8.1
2.4
2.7
32.3
50.0
27.8
56.2
35.0



Kobe tops the list with his hallowed 2006 scoring season of 35 points and his single game of 81. Kobe last season was ranked 9th all-time. With his new all-star teammates, will we see Happy Olympics Kobe, content to take less shots, play more defense, and step up as a veteran when needed? As a side note, beyond Kobe, Jordan, and Iverson, who comprise 9 of the 16 seasons, there are a few surprising players, but there's certainly a pattern: it's all wing players and mostly shooting guards, and with the weak exception of Jerry Stackhouse they're all subpar three-point shooters. There is one player who sticks out like a bleeding thumb. Which one of these players is not like the others? I certainly would not expect him. Going further off topic, I put together a simple graph of TS% (field-goal percentage adjusted for free throws and three pointers) and usage % to show how efficiency varies among the seasons with the historically greatest "ballhogging".



Bringing it back to the Lakers: as a counterpoint, let's consider how these players bring their value. Howard can replace Bynum's shots, and he can also soak up more minutes (presumably) to leave little room for replacement level types like Jordan Hill. Nash doesn't shoot all that much anyway, and Ramon Sessions loved to shoot. Howard's value is primarily on the defensive end where he's strong enough to defend big centers but quick enough to snuff out pick and roll's while protecting the rim and the weak side, and offensively a lot of his value is the mere thread of his presence in the paint. Nash is a wizard at the helm of the offense, dribbling wherever he wants on the court because if you give him a sliver of daylight he'll throw up an accurate jump shot. He shoots a staggering 50+ percent on midrange jump shots, near the top of the leaderboard year after year. His passing and pick and roll skills will combine with Howard and Gasol to form an impossible to defend play. Can you stop Howard, a huge athletic beast, from rolling to the basket while preventing one of the best shooters and passers ever an open shot? The Lakers are adding high efficiency shooting and a defensive player of the year for their interior. For another aside, one study found that when you increase a player's usage by 1% his offensive efficiency increases by 1.25 points per 100 possessions and vice versa for a decrease in usage. For the Lakers, they should hope their reduction in shot attempts for their stars translates to better offensive efficiency.

The key to the season is how they cope with new roles; this is paramount for their all-star guards. Nash regularly has the ball in his hands, directing the offense, while Kobe does the same though instead of passing he sets up for midrange jump shots. Kobe does have the ability to catch and shoot more as the mere thought of leaving him open despite his shooting percentages from 3 is enough for teams to react defensively. If the floor stays open in the middle, Howard and Gasol will destroy opponents with their length and size like they have with Bynum before. Howard will control the boards and the paint while Pau will keep evolving into a jump shooter (who doesn't actually jump). It's not ideal, but it's the same problem as last year with a better center. With Artest and Jamison likely to receive major playing time, floor spacing is the key word. Hopefully, Meeks and Goudelock can earn more playing time with Artest as a power forward, kicking out the defensively inflammable and offensively useless Jamison for outside shooting. Defensively, as long as Jamison doesn't play too many minutes at the same level he has recently, the swap of Bynum for Howard will net huge dividends as long as Howard can stay on the court. I'd rather bet on Howard than Bynum, however.

Of course, the Lakers view the regular season differently than most teams. Mike Brown notwithstanding, they should rest their best players as much as they can, especially the veterans like the nearing 40 years-old Nash. Injuries are also a concern, and those issues could affect this team more than almost any other one because their bench is, simply put, deplorable. Antawn Jamison leads the cast of misfits, but he's an undersized power forward who is a weak outside shooter, sports a low-percentage conversion rates, and can't play defense against most professional players. Their best bench player is arguably Jodie Meeks because at least his outside shooting is valuable.

During the playoffs this will matter less, and as a result I'm seeing the Lakers representing the west in the finals, especially now that the Thunder are Beard-less. Nash and Howard seem to possess a magic ability to lift offenses and defenses, respectively, and with this odd mash of players it feels like a mad experiment in the lab. The Lakers retain their status as the league's trust fund baby, gaining Dwight because he wanted big city lights and the allure of the purple and gold, and lucking out on Nash simply because they were closest to his kids. Looking at the new Lakers' stars box score numbers doesn't tell the whole story; this team could be utterly transformed. For the rest of the league, this isn't fair.

Model win total prediction:
59-23